Hazrat-e Masoumeh University , Moeini61@Yahoo.com
Abstract: (183 Views)
Objective: The purpose of the research is to present possible and desirable scenarios for the future of the publishing industry so that all efforts can be mobilized to avoid the unfavorable position and scenario in order to realize the favorable and ideal scenario as quickly as possible.
Research Methodology: Considering the qualitative research and futures studies, the Global Business Network (GBN) technique has been used to design scenarios, which is the most common and efficient method of scenario planning. The statistical population of this study is publishing industry experts that using snowball method, 10 experts were interviewed. The data obtained from the interview were analyzed.
Results: The findings of this study present four scenarios for the future of the country's publishing industry. These four scenarios are development, waste, book desert and dead end, and the development scenario with the most favorable factors among the key driving (culture and transformational policies) is an optimistic scenario, and the desert scenario with the most undesirable factors (lack of culture and past policies) is a pessimistic scenario.
Originality/value: Publishing the mirror is the full view of civil development, culture and human civilization. There is no creation and research without an audience, and if the publishing industry of a country cannot establish a link between the creators on one hand and the audience on the other hand, the business between the productive minds of the society will be seriously damaged. On the contrary, a publication that is active can take its cultural product into the society and succeeds in finding new readers, arouses new needs and demands, and has a direct impact on creation and production. The scenario planning of the publishing industry is very important for cultural macro-planning.
Research Methodology: Considering the qualitative research and futures studies, the Global Business Network (GBN) technique has been used to design scenarios, which is the most common and efficient method of scenario planning. The statistical population of this study is publishing industry experts that using snowball method, 10 experts were interviewed. The data obtained from the interview were analyzed.
Results: The findings of this study present four scenarios for the future of the country's publishing industry. These four scenarios are development, waste, book desert and dead end, and the development scenario with the most favorable factors among the key driving (culture and transformational policies) is an optimistic scenario, and the desert scenario with the most undesirable factors (lack of culture and past policies) is a pessimistic scenario.
Originality/value: Publishing the mirror is the full view of civil development, culture and human civilization. There is no creation and research without an audience, and if the publishing industry of a country cannot establish a link between the creators on one hand and the audience on the other hand, the business between the productive minds of the society will be seriously damaged. On the contrary, a publication that is active can take its cultural product into the society and succeeds in finding new readers, arouses new needs and demands, and has a direct impact on creation and production. The scenario planning of the publishing industry is very important for cultural macro-planning.
Type of Study: qualitative |
Subject:
Management Studies
Received: 2023/01/17 | Accepted: 2023/11/28
Received: 2023/01/17 | Accepted: 2023/11/28
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